Novel coronavirus 2019 "COVID-19"

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Είσαι πρωτοετής;... Καλώς ήρθες! Μπορείς να βρεις πληροφορίες εδώ.

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  Όταν ανεβάζουμε φωτογραφίες στις Ανακοινώσεις και Έκτακτα νέα, βάζουμε τη μεγαλύτερη πλευρά 400 (width=400 ή height=400 ). ΠΧ [img height=400 (κλείνει η αγκύλη) 

[Katarameno]

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Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson · 2h
BREAKING: #China says that #coronavirus infections increased from 2,887 to 4,515 *an increase of 56% in a single day*. Deaths increased 29% to 106.
This is just the beginning. Expect these numbers to continue to rise...quickly.

@thespybrief #2019_nCov

https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1221994449238032384
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Global Times @globaltimesnews · 28m
#Tianjin in North China is to launch #wartime mechanism to confront the novel #coronavirus, the first city in China to do so. A general hospital and 500 medical teams in the city are to be put under military management.

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1222038864170082304
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Coronavirus: China death toll climbs to 106 with first fatality in Beijing – live updates
US updates travel warning to China to highest level as mayor of Wuhan admits authorities were too slow in releasing information about virus.
19m ago
06:17
The Global Times is reporting that the Chinese city of Tianjin, in northern China, is to launch a “wartime mechanism”, putting one of its general hospitals and 500 medical teams in the city under military management. It’s the first Chinese city to take the step, according to the Global Times.

Tianjin is about 120km south-east of Beijing. Its population is around 15 million people.

35m ago
06:03
There are a few interesting sites tracking the increase in coronavirus cases. This one from John’s Hopkins university in the US is one of the best. It clearly shows the steep rise in confirmed infections each day in the past week, from around 280 on 20 January, to over 4,500 today.

(όταν τα ποστάραμε εμείς εδώ στο thmmy αυτά αγαπητό Guardian ήταν 24 Ιανουαρίου  )


Chinese-government backed broadcaster, the China Global Television Network (CGTN) has published a map showing infections of the coronavirus by province. Photograph: CGTN
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[Katarameno]

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Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn
UK government urged to reassure public that NHS is ready for cases within days



UK authorities have faced criticism over the time taken to track down recent arrivals from Wuhan. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

About 100,000 people could be infected with the new coronavirus around the world, experts have warned, as the UK government faced calls to reassure people that the NHS is ready to deal with any British cases within days.
Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared.

“Sooner or later we will get a case,” he said. “There are very large numbers of Chinese tourists across Europe right now. Unless the Chinese manage to control this, and I’m sceptical about whether that is possible, we will get cases here.”
...
So far there are around 40 cases outside China, including three each in the United States and France. All 56 deaths have occurred in China, mostly in people who were older and had underlying health problems that made it hard to fight off the virus.
The Department of Health and Social Care said on Sunday that 52 people had been cleared after testing in the UK and the “risk to the public remains low”.

But in spite of the rigorous containment measures China has taken, its ban on flights and the UK checks on travellers from China at Heathrow, experts say it is only a matter of time until there is a case in the UK, given the ease with which the new coronavirus is now believed to pass from one person to another – possibly transmitted by people with mild or even no symptoms at all.

Ferguson, whose team have been modelling the disease for the World Health Organization, said they estimated the virus had a reproductive rate of 2.5-3, meaning that each person infected would potentially transmit it to up to three others.

“My best guess now is perhaps 100,000 cases right now,” he said, although it could be between 30,000 and 200,000. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected.”

Most of the cases that have been exported to other countries from China have been mild, he said. That could mean mild cases of disease spread more easily than severe, life-threatening cases, which sounds like good news. But on the other hand, it means it is possible there will be a reservoir of mild disease in the country that goes unnoticed and can spread until it affects somebody vulnerable because of underlying poor health, who becomes seriously ill.

“People looking for people with a travel history to China are not necessarily looking in their local population,” he said.
There is a lot still unknown, he explained. “We don’t have reports as yet as to the extent to which children are becoming infected, probably because of the bias towards severe cases.”

Unlike Sars, which made everyone who contracted the virus severely ill, the new virus appears to be able to slip under the radar, he said. Firstly, there are the many mild carriers, who will infect other people without necessarily being recognised. Secondly, there are reports from China of people who have infected others before they have experienced any symptoms.

Ferguson said it was possible this is not quite as it appears. It may be that the authorities have not actually identified the index case – the person who infected a group of people – making it look as though they picked up the virus from someone who had no symptoms.

But although only people with symptoms of illness spread Sars, scientists point to other diseases, such as influenza and some colds, that can be passed on by those who appear well. These viruses “are carried into the air during normal breathing and talking by the infected person”, said Prof Wendy Barclay of the department of infectious disease at Imperial College London.

“It would not be too surprising if the new coronavirus also does this. If this does prove to be the case then controlling the spread does become more of a challenge, and measures like airport screening are unlikely to stem the virus effectively.”

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn
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AR Vertec
Jan 28, 2020 at 03:56
The “cat/rat/bat’s (your choice) out of the bag”. Whatever “official” data available up to January 26th showed exponential growth of confirmed cases. Even that data must be considered less than complete. No surprise the CCP is cooking the books true to form – would anyone expect anything else?

But while the CCP was probably able to limit the total number of confirmed cases being reported, they failed in covering up what the (even limited) data really shows. Kinda blows the assumption that Chinese are naturally good at math!

The core operative fact demonstrated by the data is: Exponential growth in new infections. That says everything we need to know.

But the sad reality is it doesn’t really matter anymore. This situation is beyond out of control within China. Numbers are no longer meaningful because containment is already a lost cause. People will either become infected or not. Those infected will either beat it or not. The CCP medical system might be able to help some, but certainly not everyone. The only thing to do now is monitor data from the rest of the honest world, and take appropriate measures to contain the pandemic.

The CCP was so focused on ways to limit reporting of total cases, they completely failed to understand what the TREND was showing.

[Katarameno]

Έχουν ληφθεί όλα τα απαραίτητα μέτρα και στη χώρα μας για να αντιμετωπιστεί ο κοροναϊός. "Αν χρειαστεί, είναι έτοιμος ο Εθνικός Οργανισμός Δημόσιας Υγείας  και με θερμικές κάμερες στα αεροδρόμιά μας και με θερμομέτρηση με φορητά θερμόμετρα "πιστόλια".  

Yπουργός Υγείας της κυβέρνησης των ηλιθίων, Βασίλης Κικίλιας, 26 Ιανουαρίου 2020

China’s health minister, Ma Xiaowei, told reporters on Jan. 26 that the coronavirus, unlike SARS, is infectious during its incubation period, which can last up to 14 days—meaning it can be transmitted even when the infected person exhibits no symptoms.

Ma Xiaowei, China’s health minister, 26 Ιανουαρίου 2020

Unlike Sars, which made everyone who contracted the virus severely ill, the new virus appears to be able to slip under the radar, he said. Firstly, there are the
many mild carriers, who will infect other people without necessarily being recognised. Secondly, there are reports from China of people who have infected others
before they have experienced any symptoms.“It would not be too surprising if the new coronavirus also does this. If this does prove to be the case then controlling the spread does become more of a challenge, and measures like airport screening are unlikely to stem the virus effectively.”
Prof Neil Ferguson, public health expert at Imperial College, 26 Ιανουαρίου 2020

Pandemic Risk
“I would say there is a very high pandemic risk,” said Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, citing conclusions in the Chinese CDC report.
He said the risk was exacerbated as a result of asymptomatic patients spreading the virus unknowingly.
China’s health minister, Ma Xiaowei, told reporters on Jan. 26 that the coronavirus, unlike SARS, is infectious during its incubation period, which can last up to
14 days—meaning it can be transmitted even when the infected person exhibits no symptoms.
A Jan. 24 study in The Lancet identified a coronavirus patient, aged 10, who didn’t exhibit any symptoms prior to a medical inspection. Two other patients in the
same study didn’t have signs of fever.
Such findings have raised fears that current screening measures, which check body temperature, are not effective in detecting the disease.

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, Εpidemiologist, Harvard University

https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-underreporting-true-scale-of-deadly-viral-outbreak-expert-says_3218207.html

[Katarameno]

Κοροναϊός: Συναγερμός στο Ελ. Βενιζέλος, ελέγχθηκαν Κινέζοι από τη Γουχάν

Συναγερμός και αυξημένα μέτρα ετοιμότητας και ενημέρωσης σε όλη την Ευρώπη λόγω του κοροναϊού - Κινεζικές οργανώσεις με έδρα το Παρίσι
ακύρωσαν την παρέλαση για την κινεζική Πρωτοχρονιά - Αυξάνονται τα κρούσματα
news247 26 Ιανουαρίου 2020 16:18
Αυξημένα είναι και στη χώρα μας τα μέτρα ετοιμότητας για τον νέο κοροναϊό. Σήμερα το πρωί έφτασε στο "Ελ. Βενιζέλος" γκρουπ 15 τουριστών από την
Κίνα, επτά εκ των οποίων ήταν από την πόλη Γουχάν. Οι ελληνικές αρχές ήταν ενήμερες για την πτήση που ερχόταν από το αεροδρόμιο Φιουμιτσίνο της Ρωμης.
Οι Κινέζοι τουρίστες απομονώθηκαν και εξετάστηκαν από το ΚΕΛΛΠΝΟ (πλέον Εθνικό Οργανισμό Δημόσιας Υγείας), αποδείχθηκε πως δε νοσούν και
αναχώρησαν για τη Σαντορίνη.

Όπως άλλωστε δήλωσε σήμερα ο υπουργός Υγείας Β. Κικίλιας, έχουν ληφθεί όλα τα απαραίτητα μέτρα και στη χώρα μας για να
αντιμετωπιστεί ο κοροναϊός.
"Αν χρειαστεί, είναι έτοιμος ο Εθνικός Οργανισμός Δημόσιας Υγείας και με θερμικές κάμερες στα αεροδρόμιά μας και με
θερμομέτρηση με φορητά θερμόμετρα "πιστόλια". Υπάρχει το αεροϋγειονομείο, υπάρχει ο σταθμός του ΕΚΑΒ στο αεροδρόμιο, υπάρχουν νοσοκομεία αναφοράς,
υπάρχει και η Γενική Γραμματεία Δημόσιας Υγείας και όλοι αυτοί συνεργάζονται", ανέφερε ο υπουργός, ο οποίος ωστόσο παραδέχθηκε ότι
"μαγικός τρόπος να μην φτάσει ο ιός σε μια χώρα, δεν υπάρχει. Υπάρχει όμως η πρόληψη και υπάρχει η δυνατότητα για σωστή ενημέρωση χωρίς
πανικό".
....

https://www.news247.gr/kosmos/koronaios-synagermos-sto-el-venizelos-elegchthikan-kinezoi-apo-ti-goychan.7571266.html

Ο Κικίλιας και η κυβέρνηση των απατεώνων των πουλημένων και των ηλιθίων τα τσουλάκια της Novartis, έχουν πάρει όλα τα απαραίτητα μέτρα αλλά οι Αμερικανοί οι Ιάπωνες οι Γερμανοί οι Γάλλοι ΉΤΑΝ ΜΑΛΑΚΕΣ ΚΑΙ ΤΕΜΠΕΛΗΔΕΣ ΚΑΙ ΤΣΑΠΑΤΣΟΥΛΗΔΕΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΕ ΤΑ ΠΗΡΑΝ ΠΡΟΦΑΝΩΣ ΤΑ "ΑΠΑΡΑΙΤΗΤΑ ΜΕΤΡΑ"
ΓΙΑΥΤΟ ΚΑΙ ΕΧΟΥΝ ΠΛΕΟΝ ΕΠΙΒΕΒΑΙΩΜΕΝΑ ΚΡΟΥΣΜΑΤΑ.

ΥΠΑΡΧΕΙ ΡΕ ΓΙΔΙ ΚΙΚΙΛΙΑ, ΝΑ ΚΛΕΙΣΕΙΣ ΤΑ ΣΥΝΟΡΑ και τα αεροδρόμια ειδικά. ΤΟΣΟ ΑΠΛΟ. Ο Κιμ στη Βόρεια Κορέα είναι μαλάκας δηλαδή που έκλεισε τα σύνορα. Οι Ιάπωνες που έκλεισαν τα σύνορά τους μαλάκες είναι?
Στο Hong Kong είναι μαλάκες που δε δέχονται πτήσεις από Κίνα? Εμείς είμαστε οι μόνοι "έξυπνοι" και αφήνουμε 15 Κινέζους τουρίστες, 7 από το Wuhan (!!!) να κόβουν βόλτες, μη πάθει ζημιά ο
τουρισμός μας, στις 27 Ιανουαρίου ! Eνώ είναι γνωστό πλέον οτι ο ιός μεταδίδεται και από ασυμπτωματικούς φορείς του, δηλαδή από άτομα που ΔΕΝ ΕΧΟΥΝ ΚΑΝΕΝΑ ΣΥΜΠΤΩΜΑ, ούτε πυρετό, ούτε βήχα, ούτε συνάχι, τίποτα.
Kαι πως ακριβώς "αποδείχτηκε" πως δε νοσούν?? Τους μέτρησαν απλά τη θερμοκρασία.
Ενώ ο Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, Επιδημιολόγος στο Harvard, λέει οτι : "Such findings have raised fears that current screening measures, which check body temperature, are not effective in detecting the disease."

Και αφού άφησε ο Κικίλιας τους 15 κινέζους, 7 από την Wuhan, το επίκεντρο της επιδημίας !!!, τόσο κρίσιμο αριθμό για τον Ελληνικό Τουρισμό που αριθμεί κάθε χρόνο 20-23.000.000 τουρίστες, να προσγειωθούν και να πάνε διακοπούλες μέσα στο πουτσόκρυο στη Σαντορίνη, είπε να ορίσει και Νοσοκομεία αναφοράς, αφού είναι πλέον εμφανές οτι ετοιμάζονται να το σερβίρουν το πρώτο κρούσμα :
μια "μαγικός τρόπος να μην φτάσει ο ιός σε μια χώρα, δεν υπάρχει"
μια "έχουμε λάβει όλα τα απαραίτητα μέτρα" (ώστε να μην διαδοθεί ο ιός και στην Ελλάδα)
και να κοιτάξτε έχουμε ορίσει και Νοσοκομεία όπου θα σας πηγαίνουμε όταν θα αρρωσταίνετε :

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Κοροναϊός: Αυτά είναι τα νοσοκομεία αναφοράς σε όλη την Ελλάδα
Μιχάλης Θερμόπουλος 28 Ιανουαρίου 2020 | 10:52
κορονοϊός
Ορίστηκαν από τον υπουργό Υγείας Βασίλη Κικίλια τα νοσοκομεία αναφοράς για τον κοροναϊό σε όλη τη χώρα σε συνεδρίαση του Κεντρικού Συμβουλίου Υγειονομικών Περιφερειών(ΚΕΣΥΠΕ).
Στη συνεδρίαση στην οποία προήδρευσε ο υπουργός Υγείας, παρουσιάστηκε το σχέδιο δράσης του Υπουργείου Υγείας και του ΕΟΔΥ για την αντιμετώπιση πιθανού κρούσματος κοροναϊού στην Ελλάδα.

Σε όλα τα νοσοκομεία αναφοράς και τα πληρώματα των ασθενοφόρων ΕΚΑΒ και Υγειονομικών Περιφερειών έχει καταγράφει επάρκεια σε γάντια, ειδικές μάσκες και στολές.

Επίσης έχουν καθοριστεί ειδικοί θάλαμοι μόνωσης, ενώ σε κάθε Υγειονομική Περιφέρεια υπάρχει τουλάχιστον ένα νοσοκομείο αναφοράς που διαθέτει θάλαμο αρνητικής πίεσης.

Τα νοσοκομεία της χώρας που ορίζονται ως νοσοκομεία αναφοράς είναι ανά Υγειονομική Περιφέρεια τα εξής:
1η ΥΠΕ: Βασικό: ΓΝ Νοσημάτων Θώρακος Αθηνών «Η Σωτηρία», Αναπληρωματικό: ΓΝ Αθηνών «Ο Ευαγγελισμός»
2η ΥΠΕ: Βασικό: Πανεπιστημιακό ΓΝ «Αττικόν», Αναπληρωματικό: ΓΝ Ελευσίνας «Θριάσιο»
3η και 4η ΥΠΕ: Βασικό: Πανεπιστημιακό ΓΝ Θεσσαλονίκης ΑΧΕΠΑ, Αναπληρωματικά: Πανεπιστημιακό ΓΝ Αλεξανδρούπολης, ΓΝ Πτολεμαΐδας «Μποδοσάκειο»
5η ΥΠΕ: Βασικό: Πανεπιστημιακό ΓΝ Λάρισας, Αναπληρωματικό: ΓΝ Λαμίας
6η ΥΠΕ: Βασικό: Πανεπιστημιακό ΓΝ Πατρών «Παναγιά η Βοήθεια»,
Αναπληρωματικό: Πανεπιστημιακό ΓΝ Ιωαννίνων
7η ΥΠΕ: Βασικό: Πανεπιστημιακό ΓΝ Ηρακλείου, Αναπληρωματικό: ΓΝ Χανίων «Ο Άγιος Γεώργιος»
«Οι συναρμόδιοι φορείς (Υπουργείο Υγείας, ΕΟΔΥ, Γ.Γ Δημόσιας Υγείας, Υγειονομικές Περιφέρειες, ΕΚΑΒ) βρίσκονται σε απόλυτη επιχειρησιακή ετοιμότητα και θα επικαιροποιούν το σχέδιο δράσης σε τακτική βάση», αναφέρει σχετική ανακοίνωσή του το υπουργείο Υγείας.

Από το ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ

https://www.iatropedia.gr/eidiseis/koronoios-afta-einai-ta-nosokomeia-anaforas-se-oli-tin-ellada/126490/
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ΣΕ ΟΛΗ ΤΗΝ ΕΛΛΑΔΑ
Κοροναϊός: Το σχέδιο δράσης υπ. Υγείας-ΕΟΔΥ - Νοσοκομεία αναφοράς, με ειδικούς θαλάμους

https://www.iefimerida.gr/ellada/shedio-drasis-yp-ygeias-eody-gia-koronaio
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Στο ΑΧΕΠΑ ?!!!
Μέσα στο ΑΠΘ ???!!! Στο κέντρο της πόλης?!
Ανάμεσα σε 90.000 φοιτητές? Really?

[Argirios]

The Chinese villages attempting to self quarantine

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRRmJ7vvW7E" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRRmJ7vvW7E</a>

We speak to a resident inside Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5zX4EX1KCY" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5zX4EX1KCY</a>

[Katarameno]

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing · 9h
FOLKS— I say it’s high time that @WHO finally declares an EMERGENCY ASAP for #coronavirus. Last Thursday Jan 23rd when WHO punted, there wasn’t much data. Since
then, a ground swell of data all point to an impending global pandemic. Top experts agree. Let’s make @WHO hear it!
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1221852840387391489

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing · 9h
2. Again, no outright conspiracy theories please. Here is another explanation: The new #coronavirus is an RNA virus—that is, viruses that have RNA as their genetic
material rather than DNA—which have a “high mutation rate,” which allows it to “change properties very quickly.”
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1221997385146040321

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing · 9h
3. The RNA sequences of the #coronavirus isolated from 6 patients from the same household are different from each other (Lancet), sign of the virus evolving. This
may not be so good to the ear; it suggests the difficulty of containing this virus”. (from https://m.theepochtimes.com/china-underreporting-true-scale-of-deadly-
viral-outbreak-expert-says_3218207.html)
https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-underreporting-true-scale-of-deadly-viral-outbreak-expert-says_3218207.html
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1221997842534993920

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing · 8h
4. DEEPER DIVE into #coronavirus RNA genome , here goes... “it came from bats ” is often heard, but it’s trickier. The (Virus) has similarities to bat coronavirus, but this new paper REJECTS there was recent recombination. There is something discordant too:
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1222001163291234304

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing · 8h
5. (Continued from above)... “A BLAST  search of 2019-nCoV middle fragment revealed no considerable similarity with any of the previously characterized corona
viruses (figure 2)” —> it’s a sequence entirely new to any known #coronavirus. What does this mean? We don’t know yet.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1222002328007512064

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing · 8h
6. “Notably,  the  new  coronavirus  provides  a  new  lineage  for  almost  half  of  its  genome,  with  no  close  genetic  relationships  to  other  viruses  
within  the  subgenus  of  sarbecovirus.” —> basically it’s saying it’s completely brand new to #coronavirus subgenus.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1222004689006407680

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing · 8h
7. Very strange: So what is in this new mystery middle segment that has no #coronavirus history? The study authors continue: “This genomic part comprises also half
of the spike region encoding a multifunctional protein responsible also  for virus entry into host cells[30,31]”.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1222005821665615872

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing · 8h
8. Continuing: “Our study rejects the hypothesis of emergence as a result of a  recent  recombination  event.”—> I.e. the authors also conclude that the new
#coronavirus did not originate from random recent admixture between different coronaviruses. Other possibilities of course.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1222009033743388672

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing · 8h
9. BOTTOMLINE: 1) Seafood market not the source. 2) This RNA #coronavirus mutates really fast. 3) (DNA) has unusual middle segment never seen before in any
coronavirus. 4) Not from recent mixing. 5) That mystery middle segment encodes protein responsible for entry into host cells.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1222010300859371522

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing · 8h
10. TO BE CLEAR: I am absolutely not saying it’s bioengineering, nor am I supporting any conspiracy theories with no evidence. I’m simply saying scientists need to
do more research + get more data. And finding the origin of the virus is an important research priority. Goodnight
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1222012610163417089

[Argirios]

29 JAN: Scientists in Australia have reportedly recreated a lab-grown version of coronavirus
-Death toll in China has now risen to 132 people
-There are now 5,974 confirmed cases
-103 cured cases
-US airlift leaves Wuhan
-Japanese citizens to be airlifted from Wuhan


Australian scientists create virus in lab
This morning Australian scientists have become the first in the world, outside of China, to replicate the coronavirus in a lab – in what they hope could lead to a vaccine.
Researchers at Melbourne’s Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity recreated the virus from an infected patient.
It will be shared with expert laboratories working closely with the World Health Organisation in Europe, along with laboratories across Australia.

“The virus will be used as positive control material for the Australian network of public health laboratories, and also shipped to expert laboratories working closely with the World Health Organization (WHO) in Europe.”

[Katarameno]

Αφιερωμένο, ένα tweet από την άλλη άκρη της γης, στον κρετίνο Κικίλια και σε όλη την κυβέρνηση των πουλημένων στο χρήμα κρετίνων.

Earth Nattavewut @AncientsEarth · Jan 27
Now Τhailand gon(e). Was useless
#coronovirus
#*********2019



https://twitter.com/AncientsEarth/status/1221615162693521408

[Argirios]

29 JAN:
-Surgical masks are “perfectly adequate” even for medical assessment of patients, and P2 masks are only needed for those treating confirmed cases.
-Health minister Greg Hunt(Australia) says the government does not intend to use enforcement powers to make people stay at home in quarantine.
-First confirmed case in the Middle East, United Arab Emirates, and Finnland
-Unicef has shipped 6 metric tons of supplies, including respiratory masks and protective suits, to support China’s response to coronavirus outbreak.
-British Airways suspends all direct flights to and from mainland China
-Scientists are racing to develop a coronavirus vaccine. Government scientists in China, the United States and Australia, as well as those working at Johnson & Johnson, Moderna Therapeutics and Inovio Pharmaceuticals are all engaged.

Το νοσοκομείο προχωράει
Huoshenshan Hospital:1,000-bed mobile hospital, with a floor area of 25,000 square. Operations are scheduled to start by 3 February.
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypti_cB0JTc" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypti_cB0JTc</a>

A second field hospital, Leishenshan Hospital, has also commenced construction using the same model.
The Leishenshan Hospital in the suburbs of Wuhan will have 1,600 beds. Construction began in the evening of 25 January 2020 and operations are scheduled to start by 5 February. The facility will occupy about 60,000 square metres (14 acres), including 51,000 square metres (12 acres) of quarantine units and 9,000 square metres (2.2 acres) of dormitories to house around 2,000 medical workers, a spokesperson from China Construction Third Engineering Bureau told Xinhua News Agency.

[The Audacious AI]

Μαδαγασκάρη το τελευταίο ασφαλές μέρος της γης. Αυτό λέει η εμπειρία μου.

[Μπιγκόνια]

Μαδαγασκάρη το τελευταίο ασφαλές μέρος της γης. Αυτό λέει η εμπειρία μου.

Γροιλανδία για εμένα

[Argirios]

30 JAN: Whole world must be ready to deal with coronavirus, says WHO
-Death toll in China has now risen to 170 people. It’s understood that 162 of the deaths – or 95% – are in Hubei province, where the outbreak started.
-Confirmed cases of infections stand at 7, 711. Virus Spreads to Every China Region.
-First confirmed case in Tibet.
-New coronavirus study places incubation period at around five days, but varies greatly among patients.
-US to send experts to China to fight coronavirus
-Mondelez International, the American company that makes Oreos and Chips Ahoy cookies has temporarily closed two factories to minimise the risk of infection, Reuters reports.
-Tesla temporarily closes Shanghai factory over coronavirus concerns.
-(US) Student starts petition to cancel classes at Arizona State University over coronavirus fears.
-Malaysia arrests four on suspicion of spreading fake news about the virus.


Australian authorities are now confirming what they know about how people can catch the virus:
“In terms of walking past people in the street who may or may not be infected. That is also totally virtually safe. We’re talking about really close contact over a period of time. That’s an important message that people should take.”

China says will punish officials who slack off in fighting virus
The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) said on its website that anyone who doesn’t effectively carry out President Xi Jinping’s instructions in the fight against the virus would be punished.

[Katarameno]

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing · 3h
Public health transcends politics. We’re facing a global health crisis, so nothing’s more important than making sure to scientifically informed about the coronavirus. That’s why I appeared today on @glennbeck to advocate for more funding for @CDCgov and vaccines research @NIH.

Δείτε τη συνέντευξη στο Link
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1222681552196423681

Ενα μεγάλο μπράβο στον Κικίλια και στον Κυριάκο που διακοπάρει στας Ευρώπας σα να μη τρέχει τίποτα, για την διεθνή αυτή διάκριση να τον αναφέρει και η Wikipedia και να καταφέρει να βάλει την Ελλάδα στις μπλε χώρες του χάρτη, δηλαδή σε αυτές με ύποπτα κρούσματα...



https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a4/2019-nCoV_Outbreak_World_Map.svg

Greece
As of 27 January, group of Chinese tourists from Wuhan were being monitored and tested after landing in Athens.[needs update][283]
Health Minister Vasilis Kikilias asserted that all necessary protective protocols were in place after a group of tourists from Wuhan arrived at Athens International Airport.[284]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory#Greece

Στη Γερμανία το 1 κρούσμα χθες έγινε 4 σήμερα... και δεν είναι κινέζος από τη Wuhan αλλά είναι Γερμανός Γερμανός από Βαυαρία.

Max Howroute▫️ @howroute · 5h
I think anti-vaxxers should go to the frontlines of #coronavirus outbreak and then report how it went.

Max Howroute▫️ @howroute · 4h
WHO’s director says WHO will reconvene tomorrow to make a formal announcement whether the #coronavirus constitutes a PHEIC (Public Health Emergency). It’s like Chernobyl on steroids and WHO is Gorbachev. Many epidemiologists have advocated for PHEIC for awhile, it’s long overdue.

[Katarameno]

Από έναν φοιτητή μαθηματικού

Andy Chen @newapolloblog
It's absolutely insane that the WHO has not declared coronavirus to be a global health emergency. Yes, China is one country, but it is greater than the EU and Africa in population.
EU population - 512 M
Africa population - 1.2 B
China population - 1.4 B
#CoronavirusOutbreak
12:58 PM · Jan 25, 2020
https://twitter.com/newapolloblog/status/1221024489338617857

Andy Chen @newapolloblog · 12h
Outbreak in Africa is easier contain because countries have borders. China doesn’t have internal borders so it spreads much more quickly. Outbreak in China is more severe.
But according to WHO, outbreak in China is equivalent to an outbreak in any other country. #coronavirus
https://twitter.com/newapolloblog/status/1222132383522017280

Μ αρέσει ο Anty, με 2 tweets του ξεφτίλισε ολόκληρο τον Παγκόσμιο Οργανισμό Υγείας που ξέχασε τον πληθυσμό της Κίνας και συμπεριφέρεται σα να είναι στα νησιά Κέιμαν και για κάποιο ανεξήγητο λόγο δεν θεωρεί από την πρώτη μέρα κρίσιμη την εμφάνιση άγνωστου μέχρι χθες ιού...
••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Counted deaths do not turn out to be alive, but there will be deaths which are still uncounted.

(όχι οτι θυμάμαι τίποτα από στατιστική αλλά δε βλέπω κανένα λάθος στη λογική του, αν βρείτε λάθος στις πράξεις του, πείτε το, αλλά δε θα χει και σημασία)

The 2019-nCoV Statistics Are Misleading: Why Everyone Already Knows And Acts Like This
Why the official reports are necessarily inaccurate — because of a common problem in statistics.
Andy Chen
Jan 25

The Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is currently spreading throughout China and the world. As of Jan 25, 12am EST, there are 1,354 confirmed cases and 41 confirmed deaths throughout the world.
While there are questions about whether these statistics are true or not, people are not appreciating the fact that these statistics are not like the other statistics they encounter. These statistics belong to a completely different class of statistics. This ends up having major consequences from a statistical and a practical perspective.
Let me demonstrate the difference, with two examples.
(1) Statistics with Two-Sided, Symmetric Uncertainty

...

(2) Statistics with One-Sided Uncertainty, Potentially (but not always) Extreme
Now consider the outbreak of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan. As of Jan 25, 12am EST, 1,354 cases of infection have been confirmed.

You might trust this figure and conclude that 1354 people have been infected. This would be wildly wrong. Not because of anything like bad statistics or bad reporting though, but because of asymmetry in the detection process of infections.
The probability of someone being labelled ‘confirmed’ without actually having the coronavirus is near 0. Therefore, 1354 would be the minimum number of infected people.
Now consider the other side. There are people not labelled ‘confirmed’, but have the coronavirus. The National Health Commission counts:
1,965 suspected cases (24 Jan).
15,197 close contacts with infected patients, with 13,967 of these people under quarantine (24 Jan).
A decent proportion of these cases are going to turn out to be coronavirus. If we consider these numbers now, and we assume:
90% of suspected cases turn out to be coronavirus.
20% of people being medically monitored turn out have caught it as well.
Add this onto the figure of 1,287 which was the number of confirmed infections at that time.
We get 5849 true cases of infection. Of course, this is a wildly speculative figure and likely to be inaccurate.



There are still additional cases which are not counted in this estimate.
Cases which are suspected or being monitored may end up infecting more people. These newly infected people may go on to infect more people. This is how diseases work — they spread across social networks, which are very difficult to keep track of.
It is very difficult to detect asymptomatic carriers (people who are contagious but do not show symptoms) and very difficult to account for people who have not reported their symptoms to the authorities.
So even if the assumed 90% and 20% are correct, the estimate 5,849 still ends up being the minimum number of true infections.
While it is nearly impossible to understand the severity of the problem from official figures, it is possible to make estimates based off other (not necessarily numerical) information.
Without human-to-human transmission, transmission generally stops after intervention. But in this outbreak, human-to-human transmission was confirmed, which greatly increases the probability of more undetected infections (confirmed by the National Health Commission). R0, the basic reproduction number (expected number of additional infections from a single contagious person), has so far been estimated to be around 1.4–2.5 people.
There are videos of hospitals, where waiting lounges are packed and waiting time is reported to be in the hours.
Inferences can also be made based on migration patterns. For example, it would be unlikely for 100 people to be infected in Wuhan and 200 people to be infected across North America, since people from Wuhan do not travel to North America that often. Researchers from the Imperial College London used this sort of idea to estimate a total of 4,000 cases of people with symptomatic 2019-nCoV by 18 Jan 2020
[ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ & https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-2019-nCoV-transmissibility.pdf]
, when there were only 121 confirmed cases at this time. They estimated this based off the number of outbound travellers from Wuhan International Airport, and the 7 confirmed cases overseas.

There are numerous people who have already passed, with unconfirmed cause of death. These people are not likely to be tested for coronavirus as it would be a waste of resources, given the length of hospital queues.
So the reported figure is not correct, and the estimated figure is also not correct. At best, they are lower bounds to the true figure.

...

The Difference Between The Two Types of Statistics

(1) The first type of statistic: symmetric error
Statistical training often teaches people that statistics are estimates of population parameters.
In one type of scenario, the statistic does approximately match the population parameter, with only a small two-sided error in the estimate.



Population mean is estimated by the sample mean.
In this case, if the error is small enough, a good statistic can be treated like the population parameter.

(2) The second type of statistic: asymmetric error
But in other types of scenarios, the statistic does not, and is not expected to match the population parameter. The statistic does not serve as a point estimate, but as a lower or upper bound to the parameter. In this case, the statistic is a lower bound.



...

The error is asymmetric and can be extremely large. It has its own distribution, which can be estimated based off existing information. And as the authorities gather more information, resolve more uncertainty, and update the official figures, the number N only grows and grows — in a single direction.
In this case, the statistic cannot be treated like the true population parameter.



Top: Symmetric Error in Parameter Estimate. Bottom: Asymmetric Error.
Origin of the Asymmetric Error: Problems in Detection
Asymmetric statistics can show up anytime there is a problem in detection.

Two examples:
Death counts: If there is a disaster, authorities will publish the number of confirmed deaths, instead of reporting a large estimate without confirmation (in order to avoid unnecessary grief).
Counted deaths do not turn out to be alive, but there will be deaths which are still uncounted.
Social research on sensitive, personal issues: if doing X is embarrassing, you may have people who do X not admitting to it, but you would not get people who don’t do X admitting to it.
You have many false negatives but no false positives.
In both cases, the estimates are going to have asymmetric errors. For social research, sampling error is already an issue, so now the true parameter is even more uncertain!

The Effect on Behavior and Real-World Decision Making
When people say that the official figure is an underestimate, they forget this: the official figure isn’t an estimate for the true number of cases.
The official figure isn’t even trying to estimate the true number of cases, because it will be wrong anyway. It only reports the number of confirmed cases.
The number of suspected and quarantined cases are also reported — these figures are the ones to focus on, to get a better idea of the situation.
And even though these figures could still be misleading, it seems like people are not necessarily misled by these figures.
People act fearfully and take precautions that seem unnecessary, but they know intuitively that the reported numbers are not the true numbers. This is why face masks are selling out in China right now — they know the true figures are worse and they are preparing for it.

In general, if the figures are not worse, then they may eventually be. This is why you should be careful of people who tell us to be “rational” and “stick to the data” — something that is very common among high profile individuals. Steven Pinker and Bill Gates both did it. They talk about the overwhelming inappropriate negative focus of the media, and they are both wrong. I wrote about how to better understand data and uncertainty — by looking at the generating process (the underlying probability distribution), instead of the final outcome (statistics).
To deal with these situations where the true figure is guaranteed to be worse than the current reported figure, it is important to be forward thinking — literally.
Actions must be calibrated, not with the reported figure, and possibly not even with the true level, even if it is estimated accurately. Given the level of uncertainty of the true figure, it could be necessary to calibrate action with a level above the estimated true level — a “safe” level. By doing this, we create a margin of safety and guarantee the robustness of the system.

Precautions in China
Special hospital in Wuhan with capacity for 1,000. (ενώ τα επιβεβαιωμένα κρούσματα ήταν ήδη 1300 τότε, και άρα και αυθημερόν να χτιζόταν δεν θα αρκούσε... Αλλά τα κανάλια μας δείχνουν την εντυπωσιακή πρόοδο του έργου! Πωωω φοβερό...)

https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1220674510627713025

Medical teams are being sent from other provinces to the aid Wuhan hospitals. (Μήπως, λέω, μήπως έπρεπε να στείλουν γιατρούς από την πρώτη μέρα που υπήρχε ο 1ος νεκρός?)

https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1220719008275664897

Outbound transportation has been indefinitely suspended to slow down the spread of coronavirus. (Αφού τα κάνανε σκατά επί 1,5μήνα (για ένα μήνα δεν έλεγαν τίποτα ούτε στον ΠΟΥ, μη τυχόν και ρίξουν τα μούτρα τους? μη θιχτεί το γόητρο της Κίνας?) και δεν έδρασαν αμέσως βάζοντας αμέσως σε καραντίνα (αυτονόητο για άγνωστο ιό) το 1ο κρούσμα, και διαδόθηκε σε όλες τις μεγάλες πόλεις, βάλανε απαγόρευση της κυκλοφορίας για να μειωθεί η μετάδοση... Σοφό! Αποδοτικό! Εκ του αποτελέσματος κρίνεται τόσο άψογο που πρέπει να το ακολουθήσουν και όλες οι άλλες χώρες του πλανήτη...)

https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1220243194652385280

https://towardsdatascience.com/why-everyone-knows-and-acts-like-the-2019-ncov-statistics-are-misleading-5919b3c33476

[Katarameno]

Ενα καλό ή "καλό" / αισιόδοξο άρθρο είδα, αυτό :

Based on the team’s studies, it is revealed that the Wuhan virus, which is in itself a coronavirus, cannot survive temperatures of above 57 °C and will die in such environments in 30 minutes.

A mixture of ether, 75% ethanol, chlorine-containing disinfectant and peroxyacetic acid has also proven highly effective in eradicating the virus!

Άρα πλυντήρια στους 60 τουλάχιστον


Experts Say Deadly Wuhan Virus Can Be Killed By Alcohol & High Temperatures!Published 6 days agoon January 23, 2020By Chee Kin

If you’ve been keeping track of the news, then you probably would have heard of the Wuhan virus outbreak that has now begun to spark fears across the world for its high-rate of transmission, more so after it has been confirmed in a report by SCMP that human-to-human infection is possible, after medical staff treating patients with the virus fell ill themselves. At its current count early this morning (23rd January 2020), 548 cases of the Wuhan virus have been confirmed, and 17 people have died from it, according to Sin Chew Daily.

However, not all hope is lost, as Chinese director of the State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Li Lanjuan, who claims to have studied on the Wuhan virus with Zhong Nanshan, the first scientist to discover the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus that seized the world in 2002, and his team of six other experts, have produced some of the most vital insights into the outbreak so far.

According to Li Lanjuan, who is herself a highly seasoned epidemiologist, the Wuhan virus that is currently spreading across the world has a literal Achilles Heel, and it can actually be killed.

Based on the team’s studies, it is revealed that the Wuhan virus, which is in itself a coronavirus, cannot survive temperatures of above 57 °C and will die in such environments in 30 minutes.

A mixture of ether, 75% ethanol, chlorine-containing disinfectant and peroxyacetic acid has also proven highly effective in eradicating the virus!



While the death toll of the virus is certainly rising and the number of patients are increasing at an alarming pace, the actual mortality rate (chances of you actually dying from the disease) is only around 40% to 50%, which is much lower in comparison to the  H7N9 avian influenza.

Regardless of which, its probably safer to travel around with an N95 mask for the time being to avoid catching diseases of any sort! We are nonetheless glad to hear that the Wuhan virus isn’t invincible, and that measures are being taken to protect it from spreading further.


https://www.worldofbuzz.com/experts-say-deadly-wuhan-virus-can-be-killed-by-alcohol-high-temperatures/